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☆ Nvidia and 2 other portfolio stocks report earnings next week. Here's what we want to see from each
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-18 | by ( Zev Fima | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

All three major averages closed higher for the week, driven by softer retail sales and consumer price data for April. And the data has been mostly good, with 78% reporting a positive earnings surprise and 60% delivering a positive sales surprise. But we will get earnings from three portfolio companies, including one of our two "own, don't trade" stocks. In the week ahead, three portfolio companies will report results, while it will be fairly slow for economic data, except for a couple of housing reports. Earnings : After a week without earnings from any Club stocks, we'll get three this coming week.

Persons: Dow Jones, Dow, we'll, TJX, Blackwell, Li Auto, James Hardie, Ralph Lauren Corporation, Booz Allen, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Jensen Huang, Justin Sullivan Organizations: Wall, Federal Reserve, Dow, Nasdaq, CPI, Palo Alto Networks, Palo, TJX Companies, Nvidia, Nexxen, Alto Networks, Video Communications, Trip.com, James Hardie Industries N.V, Nordson Corp, Keysight Technologies, ZIM Integrated Shipping Services, Lowe's Companies, Eagle Materials, Toll, ViaSat, Urban Outfitters, Target Corp, Devices, Dorian LPG, Dycom, Golden Ocean Group, Petco, Wellness Company, Sonoma, WSM, VF Corp, Star Bulk Carriers Corp, LiveRamp Holdings, Chemical & Mining Co, Grupo Supervielle S.A, BJ's Wholesale, Technologies, TD Bank Group, Intuit, Ross Stores, Booz Allen Hamilton Holding, Mesa Laboratories, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, Intelligence, SAP Center Locations: Palo Alto, Williams, Chile, San Jose , California

☆ ECB board member reportedly cautions against back-to-back rate cuts, cites 'risk of easing prematurely'
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-17 | by ( Lee Ying Shan | In Ying-Shan-Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

European Central Bank board member Isabel Schnabel warned against back-to-back rate cuts amid lingering inflation risks, Nikkei reported Friday, as the central bank gears for its June meeting amid expectations of a rate cut. While a rate cut in June could be warranted depending on incoming data and projections, things are less certain beyond that, Schnabel told Nikkei. "After so many years of very high inflation and with inflation risks still being tilted to the upside, a front-loading of the easing process would come with a risk of easing prematurely," the ECB board member added. Geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainty amid a slew of elections worldwide this year also pose risks to euro area financial stability, the ECB said in a recent financial stability review. The review, however, highlighted that financial stability conditions have improved.

Persons: Isabel Schnabel, Schnabel, Luis de Guindos Organizations: European Central Bank, Nikkei, ECB Locations: disinflation

☆ Fed isn't going to reach inflation target due to shelter costs, says 3Fourteen's Warren Pies
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed isn't going to reach inflation target due to shelter costs, says 3Fourteen's Warren PiesWarren Pies, 3Fourteen Research, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss shelter disinflation and takeaways from the CPI report.

Persons: Warren

☆ Powell says inflation has been higher than thought and expects rates to hold steady
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-14 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated Tuesday that inflation is falling more slowly than expected and will keep the central bank on hold for an extended period. But these [inflation readings] were higher than I think anybody expected," Powell said. While he expects inflation to come down through the year, he noted that hasn't happened so far. "I do think it's really a question of keeping policy at the current rate for longer than had been thought," he said. "I think it's more likely that we'll be at a place where we hold the policy rate where it is."

Persons: Jerome Powell, Janet Yellen, Powell Organizations: Treasury Department, Federal, Foreign Bankers ' Association in Locations: Washington , DC, Foreign Bankers ' Association in Amsterdam

☆ 4 reasons why the S&P 500 has another 5% upside this year, UBS says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-14 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The ongoing S&P 500 rally could extend to 5,500 this year, UBS said. Tech earnings have remained strong, with ex-Mag 7 tech firm profits revised 7% higher since March. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. AdvertisementWith last month's equity jitters already quashed, the ongoing rebound is the start of an extensive summer rally, UBS said. According to a note published Tuesday, the S&P 500 could reach the firm's upside scenario of 5,500 by this year's end.

Persons: Disinflation, —, Marcelli, That's Organizations: UBS, Tech, Service, Global Wealth Management, Microsoft, Nvidia, Apple

☆ JPMorgan's trading desk lays out 6 scenarios for tomorrow's inflation report, and how the stock market will react to each of them
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-14 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The Wednesday release of the April CPI report has the potential to shake up the stock market. A cool inflation report would bode well for interest rate cuts from the Fed and vice versa if it's hotter than expected. JPMorgan laid out six scenarios for April CPI and how the stock market could react to each. The coming inflation report is set to market-shaking because it will help investors determine when the Federal Reserve might move forward with interest rate cuts. At the start of the year, the market was pricing in as many as seven interest rate cuts, but that has dwindled to just two rate cuts before year-end.

Persons: bode, —, Defensives outperforming, JPMorgan's Andrew Tyler, Tyler, Immaculate Disinflation Organizations: Fed, JPMorgan, Service, Federal Reserve, China PPI Locations: China

☆ The stock market is about to see a 10% correction, with further disinflation a 'pipe dream' and Fed rate cuts coming much later, Stifel says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-13 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The S&P 500 could fall around 500 points in a swift correction, Stifel strategists warned. The investment firm said falling inflation was a "pipe dream," and Fed rate cuts could be delayed. Markets see just one or two rate cuts by the end of the year, per the CME FedWatch tool. "We have been wary of a broad S&P 500 correction in the middle quarters of 2024. Markets have already dialed back their outlook for Fed rate cuts this year, which drove a sell-of in stocks in April.

Persons: — Organizations: Service, Fed, PCE, Traders

☆ S&P 500 to fall 500 points and getting to 2% inflation soon is 'pipe dream,' Stifel says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-13 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Stifel Financial is predicting a rough road ahead for the S & P 500 . The investment bank forecasts the benchmark stock index will tumble about 500 points to 4,750 in the second or third quarter — a correction of roughly 10%. "As a result, the sustained 2% Core PCE inflation the Fed seeks is a pipe dream." Stifel's inflation model shows a jump in core personal consumption expenditures to just over 3% in the second half of this year. The S & P 500 is up about 9.5% year to date.

Persons: Barry Bannister, Bannister Organizations: PCE

☆ Asia markets largely lower as investors assess China inflation data, await Japan GDP print
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-13 | by ( Lim Hui Jie | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Federal Reserve regional presidents Neel Kashkari of Minneapolis and Austan Goolsbee of Chicago said they are taking a patient approach to monetary policy as they weigh surprisingly strong inflation data this year. Let's get a lot more data to see if this inflation is going to continue or if it's stalling," Kashkari said during a joint live interview on CNBC. "We are all committed to getting inflation back" to the Fed's 2% goal. Goolsbee noted the rapid disinflation that occurred in 2023 and said he is hopeful that can resume following the sticky upward trend seen so far this year. Or did we kind of use up all of our good luck and this bump of the beginning of the year is actually a sign of overheating?"

Persons: Neel Kashkari, Kashkari, Goolsbee, Jeff Cox Organizations: Reserve, CNBC Locations: Minneapolis, Chicago

☆ Inflation is slowing. Here's why prices still aren’t going down
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-12 | by ( Charlotte Morabito | In Charlottemorabito | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

"I think it's no secret that prices are going up in pretty much every area right now," Lueke told CNBC. About two thirds, 65%, of U.S. adults surveyed by CNBC/SurveyMonkey this spring said inflation is the main driver of their financial stress. Disinflation, deflation and the 'money illusion'"I think Americans are a little perplexed when they see news reports of inflation coming down, and yet they don't notice any of their prices coming down," said Lindsay Owens, executive director of the nonprofit think tank Groundwork Collaborative. There's an important difference between inflation increasing more slowly — a phenomenon called disinflation — and inflation reversing itself, which would lead to prices coming down. When they do fall, it is typically a result of people spending less, which isn't currently the case.

Persons: Jenn Lueke, Lueke, Jennifer Lueke, Zac Staffiere, I'm, Lindsay Owens, isn't Organizations: CNBC Locations: Boston, U.S

☆ The UK has 'probably the most convincing disinflation story,' economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe UK has 'probably the most convincing disinflation story,' economist saysSanjay Raja, chief U.K. economist at Deutsche Bank, discusses the divergence between U.S. and U.K. central banks.

Persons: Sanjay Raja Organizations: Deutsche Bank

☆ Why you should buy stocks ahead of next week's inflation report
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-10 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Investors should buy stocks ahead of next week's release of the April CPI report, according to Fundstrat's Tom Lee. An in-line CPI report or better would increase the chances of three interest rate cuts this year, Lee said. AdvertisementInvestors should buy stocks ahead of next week's release of the April CPI report, according to Fundstrat's Tom Lee. Sweden's Riskbank cut interest rates for the first time since 2016 on Wednesday, and the Bank of England signaled that interest rate cuts are imminent. And next week, we expect incoming data to show overall softening of the key components of inflation," Lee said.

Persons: Tom Lee, Lee, — Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Bank of England

☆ Treasury yields inch higher as investors weigh interest rate outlook
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-08 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Yields and prices have an inverted relationship and one basis point equals 0.01%. ET the yield on the 10-year Treasury was up by more than 1 basis point at 4.479%. U.S. Treasury yields were slightly higher Wednesday as investors weighed the latest remarks from Federal Reserve officials, looking for clues on the path ahead for interest rates. Last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the Fed was unlikely to hike rates at its next meeting. More comments from Fed officials are expected throughout the week, which investors will be scanning for hints about the monetary policy outlook.

Persons: Neel Kashkari, Tom Barkin, Jerome Powell Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Federal Reserve, Minneapolis, Richmond Fed

☆ US inflation will soar if America doesn't undergo reindustrialization, investment manager says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-07 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Prices in the US could keep going up if the US doesn't "reindustrialize" its economy, Richard Bernstein said. The US has a "massive" trade deficit at a time when world trade is becoming fragmented, he noted. AdvertisementInflation will climb higher if the US economy doesn't reindustrialize its economy, according to investment manager Richard Bernstein. World trade has become more fragmented since the pandemic, and rising geopolitical tensions are a sign that the trend is continuing, he said. If it doesn't … we're going to have tremendous inflation here in the United States," Bernstein said to CNBC on Monday.

Persons: Richard Bernstein, —, Bernstein, Ken Griffin Organizations: US, Service, Commerce Department, CNBC, JPMorgan Locations: United States, America

☆ Markets jump higher after softer-than-expected jobs report fuels hopes of an earlier rate cut
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-03 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

The unemployment rate ticked higher as well, to 3.9% from 3.8% the month before. That’s because the Federal Reserve is working to slow the economy by hiking interest rates — the only tool it has to fight inflation. A still-robust job market means the central bank could continue to keep rates elevated without fear of sending the economy into a recession. If the labor market weakens, the Fed is more likely to consider a rate cut. “We’re also prepared to respond to an unexpected weakening in the labor market,” he said.

Persons: Dow, “, ”, Matt Peron, Janus Henderson, They’re, Jerome Powell, “ We’re Organizations: New, New York CNN, Nasdaq, of Labor Statistics, Wall, Federal Reserve, Janus, Janus Henderson Investors, ”, Treasury, Apple Locations: New York

☆ Turkey's inflation accelerates to nearly 70% in April
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-03 | by ( Natasha Turak | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Turkey's inflation accelerated to 69.8% annually for the month of April, the Turkish Statistical Institute reported Friday. On a monthly basis, Turkey's inflation increased 3.18%, led by price rises in alcoholic beverages and tobacco, and hotels, cafes and restaurants. April's inflation rate marks the highest annual increase since November 2022, when inflation was around 85%. But any hopes of interest rate cuts are a long way off, economists said. Turkey's central bank has hiked its key interest rate to 50%, citing the continuing need to counter climbing inflation in the country.

Persons: Kemal Ataturk, April's, Liam Peach Organizations: Turkish, Turkish Statistical Institute, Economics Locations: Turkish, Sisli, Istanbul, Turkey, London

☆ The stock market's sell-off is over and the Fed gave 5 bullish signs to investors at its latest meeting, Fundstrat's Tom Lee says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-02 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The sell-off that battered stocks in April probably won't stretch into May, according to Fundstrat's Tom Lee. AdvertisementThe stock market's sell-off could be over, and five bullish signals the Fed gave at its latest policy meeting are setting the stage for gains in May, according to Fundstrat's head of research Tom Lee. Investors are now pricing in a 69% chance the Fed could rate rates once or twice by the end of the year, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Stock investors have already perked up on a brighter outlook for Fed rate cuts this year. Stocks reacted positively to the Wednesday Fed meeting.

Persons: Tom Lee, Lee, —, Powell, presser, Stocks Organizations: Service, Markets, Fed, stagflation, Investors

☆ Invesco: Expect one to two Fed rate cuts this year
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-30 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInvesco: Expect one to two Fed rate cuts this yearBen Gutteridge, director of model portfolio services at Invesco, says "the very latest would be December, but I think there is a chance it comes before that if the wage data continues to show disinflation."

Persons: Ben Gutteridge Locations: Invesco

☆ The stock rally is masking stagflation risk raised by the latest GDP report, JPMorgan says
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-30 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

JPMorgan says the recent stock rebound driven by robust earnings masks looming stagflationary risks. The soft landing narrative is challenged by the first-quarter GDP report. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementThe recent rally in the stock market, bolstered by a wave of upbeat earnings, is glossing over a host of risks raised by the latest economic data points, JPMorgan said this week. Jamie Dimon and other experts are sounding the alarm, saying the US might be headed for a 1970s-style scenario, complete with a stock market crash.

Persons: —, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic, hasn't, Jamie Dimon Organizations: JPMorgan, Service, Microsoft

☆ Europe’s Policymakers Get Ready to Lower Rates, Regardless of the Fed
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-25 | by ( Eshe Nelson | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Europe’s central bankers are trying to get out of the shadow of the United States. Now, European Central Bank policymakers are emphasizing how much the inflation problem has eased in the eurozone. All week, Europe’s policymakers reiterated their growing confidence that high inflation was dissipating in the eurozone and that their 2 percent inflation target was in sight. The E.C.B., which sets interest rates for all 20 countries that use the euro, has signaled it could cut rates at its next policy meeting in early June. “We’re clearly in a disinflation process,” said Gabriel Makhlouf, governor of Ireland’s central bank and one of the 26 members of the E.C.B.’s governing council.

Persons: “ We’re, ”, Gabriel Makhlouf Organizations: European Central Bank, International Monetary Fund, World Bank Locations: United States, Washington, Ireland’s, U.S

☆ BNP Paribas forecasting further disinflation in housing market, says Chief U.S. Economist Riccadonna
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBNP Paribas forecasting further disinflation in housing market, says Chief U.S. Economist RiccadonnaCarl Riccadonna, chief U.S. economist at BNP Paribas, and CNBC's Steve Liesman join 'The Exchange' to share their reactions to the 2Y Treasury auction, outlooks for housing and inflation, and more.

Persons: Riccadonna Carl Riccadonna, Steve Liesman Organizations: BNP, BNP Paribas, Treasury

☆ Firm dollar drags yen down closer to intervention range
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

A firm U.S. dollar had the yen locked near a fresh 34-year low on Tuesday, keeping investors on heightened intervention watch as they looked ahead to key U.S. inflation report and the Bank of Japan's rate decision this week. A firm U.S. dollar had the yen locked near a fresh 34-year low on Tuesday, keeping investors on heightened intervention watch as they looked ahead to key U.S. inflation report and the Bank of Japan's rate decision this week. Traders have been keeping wary eye as yen slips towards 155.00, a level considered by many participants as the new trigger for intervention by Japanese authorities. The weak yen complicates the BOJ's policy path, with some market players betting the central bank could come under pressure to hike rates sooner than it wants to slow the currency's decline. Markets are currently pricing in a 46% chance of the Fed's first rate cut starting in September, with November not far behind at 42%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Persons: Carol Kong, Shunichi Suzuki, BoE, Sterling, bitcoin Organizations: Bank of, Traders, Bank of Japan's, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Japan's Finance, Federal Reserve, Investors, Commonwealth Bank of Australia's, European Central Bank, Bank of England Locations: Japan, Iran, Israel, Tokyo, Japan's, U.S, Commonwealth Bank of Australia's Kong

☆ Bank of England to cut rates in May, Morgan Stanley says, retaining contrarian call
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-18 | by ( Karen Gilchrist | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The Bank of England could still cut interest rates in May, Morgan Stanley has said, in an increasingly rare call of confidence as market sentiment supporting such a move wanes. "We still entertain a May rate cut," chief economist Jens Eisenschmidt told CNBC's "Street Signs" on Wednesday, reiterating the bank's commitment to an earlier call. The Wall Street bank's contrarian view is now some way off consensus, which currently prices in an initial BOE rate cut in September, according to LSEG data. "In general, the central banks are all, to some extent, in the same boat. Morgan Stanley on Monday revised its ECB rate cut forecast, following an earlier revision in its Fed outlook.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, Jens Eisenschmidt, CNBC's, BOE, Andrew Bailey, Morgan Stanley's, Eisenschmidt, there's Organizations: Bank of England, European Central Bank, ECB Locations: City of London, London, United Kingdom, Europe, U.S

Alex Kraus | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesEuropean Central Bank policymaker Joachim Nagel said Wednesday that a rate cut for the institution looks increasingly likely for June, but added that certain parts of the incoming inflation data still look higher than desired. watch nowEarlier Wednesday, Mario Centeno, governor of Portugal's central bank, said it was "about time to change this monetary policy cycle." The ECB's June interest rate decision would be "very important," he said. Markets are widely pricing in the first rate cut from the ECB to take place in June. watch nowEarlier this week, ECB President Christine Lagarde said that unless there were any major shocks, the ECB was on track to cut interest rates soon.

Persons: Joachim Nagel, Alex Kraus, Central Bank policymaker Joachim Nagel, Germany's Bundesbank, Karen Tso, " Nagel, —, Mario Centeno, CNBC's Tso, Christine Lagarde, disinflation, CNBC's Sara Eisen, Robert Holzmann, Holzmann, wasn't Organizations: Deutsche Bundesbank, Bloomberg Television, Bloomberg, Getty, Central Bank, ECB Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Washington ,, Europe, Portugal's, Austrian, East

☆ If this is a stock market correction, here's how history says it will unfold
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-16 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The recent retreat in the stock market has made many worried about a deeper correction. Lingering inflation concerns, rising Treasury yields and a shifting outlook for Federal Reserve interest rate policy prompted a market pullback, with the S & P 500 almost 4% off its 52-week high as of Tuesday. A correction is defined as a 10% decline in one of the major U.S. stock indexes, typically the S & P 500 or Dow Jones Industrial Average, from a recent 52-week high close. .SPX 1Y mountain S & P 500 More to go? The heightened geopolitical risk led U.K. investment bank Liberum Capital to call for oil to surge to $100 and a stock market correction as big as 10%.

Persons: Sam Stovall, it's, Stovall, Jonathan Krinsky, Krinsky, Marko Kolanovic Organizations: Federal Reserve, CFRA Research, Dow Jones Locations: U.S

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